A Game-Theory-Based Approach to Modeling Lane-Changing Interactions on Highway On-Ramps: Considering the Bounded Rationality of Drivers

In highway on-ramp sections, the conflictual interactions between a subject vehicle (merging vehicle) in acceleration lane and following (lagging adjacent mainline can lead to traffic congestion, go–stop oscillations, serious safety hazards. Human drivers combine their previous lane-changing experience perception of surrounding conditions decide whether merge. However, decisions that they make are not always optimal specific scenarios due fuzzy misjudgment. That is, bounded rational way. this paper, game-theory-based approach is used model interactive behavior mandatory section. The comprehensively considers rationality by modeling on on-ramps as two-person non-zero-sum non-cooperative game with incomplete information. addition, Logit QRE explain drivers. order estimate parameters, bi-level programming framework built. Vehicle trajectory data from NGSIM an unmanned aerial survey were for calibration validation. validation results rigorously evaluated using various performance indicators, such mean absolute error, root square detection rate, false-alarm rate. It be seen proposed theory-based was able effectively predict merging yielding high degree accuracy.